(Update: two complaints that the link in the Main post didn't work due to permission problems. Well I think I have that fixed on Google Docs. If not THIS one should work
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=r49_nOHQG4QdHuwcbMGmP0Q same doc minus some column labels. If neither work I'll get back and if necessary put up an image file of the PDF)
No I have not gone over to the Dark Side. But this will take some patient explanation from me and maybe some assumption scrapping by you.
My starting point is a question: under current law what would a healthy Trust Fund look like under ideal circumstances? And the formal answer is that it would be in Actuarial Balance over the Short Term and Long Term, defined by the Trustees as 10 years and 75 years respectively. In fairly recent years a refinement has been added, pushed in large part by Steve Goss, the current Chief Actuary of Social Security (and so the chief numbers guy) called Sustainable Solvency which effectively extends Actuarial Balance to the indefinite future. In both definitions the key number is called Trust Fund Ratio and in coming to an understanding of TF Ratio we can also grasp a very odd and counter-intuitive result, that Trust Fund balances including the current $2.6 trillion were never intended to be redeemed, and that that result is a very good thing. "But, but, it is OUR money! We paid it in, we want it back!". Well yes you paid it in and for a very good reason, and in real terms will get the value of all that extra money coming back to you, but you won't get it back directly and once you understand why you won't even want it. Repayment of Trust Fund principal being a sign that Social Security was actually in crisis as opposed to the phony one it is stuck in today.
Resolution below the fold.
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