Social Security: Same reality, two lenses

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Monday January 21, 2013 · 7:02 PM PST

2013/01/21 · 19:02

Okay we are at the last point where 'reformers' and 'defenders' of Social Security agree.

We have two dotted lines overlapped by a solid line. One dotted line starts at the lower left and ascends to the upper right. This line is "Scheduled Benefits". The other dotted line starts at the upper left (barely) and descends to a flat line at 5.1 (of what, it doesn't matter as yet) as is labeled as "Tax Revenues". Now both "Scheduled Benefits" and "Tax Revenues" are dependent on an arithmetic relation between current law tax and benefit formulas and a particular set of economic and demographic assumptions called 'Intermediate Cost'. And under these formulae and assumptions "Scheduled Benefits" and "Tax Revenues" already crossed. Which is one definition of 'crisis'. And in this figure marked by the vertical line.

On the other hand we have something called the 'Social Security Trust Fund'. And things get complicated. Below the crueller.

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Friday January 18, 2013 · 7:13 PM PST

2013/01/18 · 19:13

Well the short answer, aka Faux News zero information viewer version is, "One. $16 trillion. The Chinese." Hard as it may be to believe for dKos members the answer is more complicated than that. So lets start with the easy parts, the Treasury Department web application that tracks total U.S. Public Debt to the Penny. Which if done on Friday Jan 18, 2013 would give you this:

Okay so far Faux is not looking too stupid. Total Public Debt is indeed $16.4 trillion dollars and is almost identical to Debt Subject to the Limit. But now is where we start subtracting from zero from the info basis of the Economic Right. Warning, numbers below the squiggle. Read More

Social Security Trust Funds & Ten Year Deficit Scoring

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Monday January 07, 2013 · 1:06 PM PST

2013/01/07 · 13:06

Does Social Security contribute to the Deficit? Yes by running scored surpluses it has reduced them and WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE DEFICITS FOR MOST OF THE 10 YEAR WINDOW.

The graphic above actually has lots of lessons but I want to focus on year end balances in Social Security. The Table is taken from CBO's 2012 Budget and Economic Outlook. In a previous post I showed that increases in Social Security Trust Fund balances result in increases in Intragovernmental Holdings which results in an increase in Total Public Debt. But the equally serve to REDUCE deficits under standard CBO scoring rules. More below the squiggle.

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Saturday January 05, 2013 · 8:25 PM PST

2013/01/05 · 20:25

CBO: (2010) Social Security Policy Options

Many, many commenters claim that Social Security can just be fixed by changing this or that with most progressives lining up via some version of 'Just Lift the Cap'. Well depending on what you mean by 'lift' and what level of benefits go with it you can make that work. And as an aid CBO scored 30 different policy options, including a variety of cap increase proposals, against an actuarial gap they scored at 0.6% of GDP. So that is the magic score, put together any combination of plus (revenue increases or benefit cuts) and minuses (benefit boosts for lower income recipients) that add up to 0.6 and 'Bob's Your Uncle'. Some notes below the fold, but the meat is right here. Bon appetit!

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Saturday January 05, 2013 · 9:05 AM PST

2013/01/05 · 09:05

Well let's start where my last diary ended up: Debt Toolkit: Public, Subject to the Limit, Social Security Trust Fund and put those tools to work starting from the same screen shot from Treasury's Debt to the Penny web application.

To recap: by law since their foundation in 1939 (OAS) and 1956 (DI) the Social Security Trust Funds have been required to hold all income in excess of current cost in the form of financial instruments fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by the federal government, which in practice means Treasuries. The specific Treasuries held by the Trust Funds are called Special Issues and have some unique features but are legal obligations of the U.S. fully backed up by Full Faith and Credit of the United States. As such the $2.6 trillion in the Trust Funds are held on the books at Treasury as just over half of the $4.8 tn of 'Intragovernmental Holdings' in the screen shot and so right on 1/7th of the $16.4 tn of Total Public Debt Outstanding. And importantly, and as shown in the last diary, an equal amount of Debt Subject to the Limit, that same $16.4 tn. Implications of this for the current Debt Limit debate below the cheese eating surrender monkey curve/squiggle. Read More

Debt Toolkit: Public, Subject to the Limit, Social Security Trust Fund

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Friday January 04, 2013 · 9:35 AM PST

2013/01/04 · 09:35

First some definitional points.
Total Public Debt = Debt Subject to the Limit. Or more properly the two track precisely (Green and Blue lines in first figure).
Total Public Debt = Federal Debt = National Debt (as shown as topline number on the National Debt Clock) When you Google any or all of those terms you are likely to come up with the same $16.4 trillion.

With that settled I want to talk some policy implications below the fold, particularly as all this relates to Social Security and the Debt Limit.

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Thursday January 03, 2013 · 12:55 PM PST

2013/01/03 · 12:55

Does Social Security contribute to the Debt? To the Deficit? Supporters say NO. 'Reformers' and outright Opponents say YES Of Course. But I am here, with the help of official tables and definitions from CBO, OMB, SSA, and perhaps JCT, to give you the final, the definitive, the end debate for all time answers. Or maybe not. Because the real answers to those questions are: Yes, No, Both, It Depends, and Can You Define Your Terms. And all of those answers can either be in good faith or bad, and the tools are not responsible for their use. All this post is meant to do is to allow Kossacks to start building their own toolboxes, starting with some from the above table from CBO's 2012 Budget and Economic Outlook.

Tool sharpening starts below the squiggle.

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Monday December 31, 2012 · 10:37 AM PST

2012/12/31 · 10:37

I set the scene and tell the three-fold story below. Read More

Note from the Admin/Founder of SSD

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Thursday January 19, 2012 · 9:43 PM PST

2012/01/19 · 21:43

I'm back and will be monitoring/admin'ing/editing/writing for Social Security Defenders.

My absense had zero to do with GBCW and everything to do with time demands of a relocation from Seattle to the SF Bay Area which also cut me off from regular Internet access above that needed to check e-mail. But as of Thurs AM I am fully wired.

I haven't even checked for Group activity over the last six weeks, I have well and truly been out of the loop. Hope nobody broke the place. Luckily there has been litle direct activity on the SS front, something that should change as the debate on the payroll tax holiday heats up starting next week. I'll be there.

Bruce

"Just Scrap the Cap (We are Moving in)"

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Thursday October 20, 2011 · 7:01 AM PDT

2011/10/20 · 07:01

Brand new video from Social Security Works-Washington (State) explaining why Social Security is crucial even to the under 30 crowd. Because you don't want this happening to you.

Bruce Webb for Social Security Defenders

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Sunday October 09, 2011 · 5:32 PM PDT

2011/10/09 · 17:32

Nothing. The 1% are running scared and maybe figure this isn"t the time to try to attack Social Security TOO.

Social Security Defenders ARE the 99%. and right now nobody needs to be parsing the numbers of the Trustees' Table IV.A4. But us number geeks are hanging out and fully cheering on MoT and friends. Because they got our backs just like we do theirs

Romney does the Full Cheney

Bruce Webb

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Friday October 07, 2011 · 9:07 AM PDT

2011/10/07 · 09:07

Oh my here we go again. Romney's vision for 'an American century'. From CNN this morning.

One day after President Barack Obama referred to the jobs crisis in America as "an emergency", GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney will deliver his first major foreign policy speech, sharply criticizing the president while laying out his own vision for what he calls "An American Century" including calling for increased military spending.
In an advance draft of his planned remarks he'll deliver before cadets at The Citadel in Charleston, Romney is expected to lay out his vision that combines economic and military strength, noting that "God did not create this country to be a nation of followers."

"This century must be an American Century. In an American Century, America has the strongest economy and the strongest military in the world. In an American Century, America leads the free world and the free world leads the entire world."

If this sounds familiar it should, in fact Romney has apparently lifted his foreign policy vision whole from the Project for a New American Century, a group founded in 1997 which published its Statement of Principles four years before that vision was enabled by 9/11. Signatories and key extracts under the cruller.

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Social Security: Same reality, two lenses

How many forms of U.S. Debt? How much? And who holds it?

Social Security Trust Funds & Ten Year Deficit Scoring

CBO: Social Security Policy Options (x30 incl. Chained-CPI)

Social Security: Debt Limit, Trust Funds, Unfunded Liability

Debt Toolkit: Public, Subject to the Limit, Social Security Trust Fund

Deficits, Debt, Social Security: Building your Conceptual Toolkit

Social Security Rashomon: an Actuary, a Defender and a Reformer Meet

Note from the Admin/Founder of SSD

"Just Scrap the Cap (We are Moving in)"

What happened to Social Security?

Romney does the Full Cheney